Construction of All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall Series for the Period 1844–1991

Forecasting All-india Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Regional Circulation Principal Components: a Comparison between Neural Network and Multiple Regression Models

Pre-monsoon principal components (PCs) of circulation fields covering the South Asian subcontinent were used as predictors for all-India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) over the period 1958–1993. Predictive skill of non-linear neural network models and linear multiple regression models was compared using a bootstrap-based resampling procedure. Monsoon precursor signals represented by PCs were i...

Subseasonal Predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Ensemble Forecasts

Subseasonal forecast skill over the broadly defined North American (NAM), West African (WAM) and Asian (AM) summer monsoon regions is investigated using three Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) at sub-monthly lead times. Extended Logistic Regression (ELR) is used to produce probabilistic forecasts of weekly and week 3–4 averages of precipitation with starts in May–Aug, over the 1999–2010 period....

Statistical Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Enduring Challenge

Long-Range Forecasts of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Explored for India

Southwest monsoon rainfall (received during June–September) determines the fate of millions of dryland farmers as well as the status of national food security in India almost every year. The need for information about southwest monsoon rainfall is great in these areas. An accurate long-range forecast can help farmers increase agricultural productivity in good rainfall years and negate the sudde...

Interannual Variation in Indochina Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Possible Mechanism

Indochina is located between two extensively researched components of the Asian monsoon system: the Indian subcontinent and southeast–east Asia. Highly correlated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Niño-3 sea surface temperatures, the interannual variation of Indochina monsoon rainfall is caused by a mechanism different from the two aforementioned regions. This mechanism c...